Geopolitical··Severity 8
‘Ballot must replace the bullets’, South Sudan tells General Assembly ahead of elections
South Sudan remains committed to holding general elections in December to conclude its transition period, the country’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Cecilia Adout Majok Adeng, told the General Assembly on Monday, calling for all sanctions, including the arms embargo to be lifted.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
60%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: UN News
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%