Geopolitical··Severity 8
Hybrid warfare: The threat of Russia looms over the Mediterranean
The CIA has reportedly warned several countries that Russia is preparing to launch hybrid operations across the Mediterranean Sea. But is the risk real, or is it a form of cyber warfare?
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
60%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%