Ты видишь риск, которого нет в портфеле.
А видишь ли ты мир, который живёт без тебя? 8 эр. 4900 лет. Одна планета.
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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Expert says UK airbase plot 'fits into a very intense pattern we've been seeing in past two months'

British police said Monday five men arrested near an airbase used by the United States were released on bail, as officers probed whether a "foreign state" could be involved in a suspected bomb plot.

Speaking with FRANCE 24's Monte Francis, Yan Saint-Pierre, CEO of Modern Security Consulting Group, explains that many of the hybrid warfare cases seen recently "involve local nationals, this is not about exporting terror" adding that foreign actors aim to have "as many layers as possible to complicate any investigation and accurate denounciation of culprits".

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

61%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%