Ты видишь риск, которого нет в портфеле.
А видишь ли ты мир, который живёт без тебя? 8 эр. 4900 лет. Одна планета.
Смотреть AGORA ?
← Scenarios catalogue
Military··Severity 9

Saudis 'furious': Trump ‘flips & flops’ between deal with Iran and ‘attacks in devastating fashion’

François Picard is pleased to welcome Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center.

She describes the US-Iran conflict as a dangerous combination of military escalation, diplomatic ambiguity and political calculation.

Slavin sees an absence of true diplomacy: The recent indirect contacts between Washington and Tehran, mediated by Qatar, has been too limited and too fragile to produce any serious breakthrough.

For her, this amounts to “kabuki diplomacy”: they half engage while positioning themselves against any appearance of compromise.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

76%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%