Geopolitical··Severity 8
High risk of escalation in Middle East; any conflict there affects Syria — expert
Lilian Maarouf stressed that ensuring stability and preventing conflicts between external powers should be the priority
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
60%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%