The Unhedgeable Bet: What the Future Combat Systems Can Teach Us About Acquisition

The Pentagon describes Golden Dome for America as a “system of systems,” an integrated air and missile defense architecture that combines space-based sensors, orbital interceptors, ground systems, and a command network designed to defeat any aerial attack.

Eighteen months after its founding executive order, the program broke ground on its first operational site.

Its architecture remains so closely held that the Congressional Budget Office cannot fully price it, and cost estimates span from $252 billion to $3.6 trillion.

The program also carries significant risk of failure, depending on how many tightly coupled, interdependent systems it attempts to integrate.

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