Economic··Severity 7
CCC Debt Turns Distressed for First Time Since 2023 Crisis
The spread on the riskiest US corporate bonds has jumped above 1,000 basis points over Treasuries for the first time since the regional banking crisis in 2023.
That level of risk premium typically implies high probability of default, restructuring or loss.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%