Geopolitical··Severity 8
Russia extends diesel export ban
Curbs imposed in response to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries threaten to worsen global supply crunch
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%