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Economic··Severity 7

China slaps 55% tariff on Brazilian beef, rebuffs bid to borrow Uruguay’s quota

China will charge an extra 55 per cent tariff on Brazilian beef from Thursday after Brazil filled its import quota for the year and has not agreed to let Brazilian exporters use the unfilled quota of neighbouring Uruguay, industry sources said.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the surtax on Wednesday, a day after China’s customs administration confirmed that Brazil had used all of its 1.106 million-tonne allowance for 2026, and under the rules the extra tariff applies from the third...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%