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Social··Severity 7

Bassiri Tabrizi: US Iran Moving Further Apart in Talks

Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued risks to shipping, according to separate estimates from JPMorgan & Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile the diplomatic stalemate between the US & Iran continues with Hormuz & nuclear weapons being the main sticking points despite mediation efforts from Qatar.

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Associate Fellow MENA at Chatham House spoke to Bloomberg’s Abeer Abu Omar on Horizons Middle East & Africa on the impasse between the two sides. (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

39%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%