Geopolitical··Severity 8
Russia officially threatens NATO with nuclear weapons over Kaliningrad Oblast – Reuters
A Russian diplomatic note seen by Reuters says Moscow could use nuclear weapons if NATO attempts to isolate Kaliningrad Oblast, while the alliance rejects the threat.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
59%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%