Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting
After contagion in the Arabian Peninsula, should the entire Horn of Africa fear a domino effect?
Just as Donald Trump’s decision to invade Iran drew the Saudis back to Yemen: did threats over the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb light the fuse in Ethiopia, where last week, unresolved issues between the government and its Tigray region erupted?
Could a potential return to civil war draw in regional rivals?
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%