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Economic··Severity 7

Has the US-China tariff deal eroded Southeast Asia’s tariff edge?

For years, Chinese manufacturers have viewed Southeast Asia as a way to reduce exposure to higher US duties on goods made in China.

But a new round of tariff cuts proposed by Washington and Beijing could weaken that incentive for some products, potentially changing the economics of the strategy.

Under the new US-China Board of Trade, more than 90 per cent of Chinese products on a list of goods worth US$30 billion – mostly everyday consumer items, such as toys and household goods – would return...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%