Geopolitical··Severity 8
Putin shows no sign of stopping the war as Russia doubles down on Ukraine
A foreign policy speech by the Russian president will be keenly watched, but all signs point to the full-scale invasion continuing.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%