Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ethiopia: Who could bring the warring sides to the negotiation table?
Ethiopia might be facing its most complex armed conflict in contempary times. The fragile 2022 peace deal has collapsed.
International mediators have failed. How will the country manage to return to normal?
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
51%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: DW World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%