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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Jaw-Jaw With Belarus, Revisited Amid Ukraine War

In 2021, Michael Kimmage wrote, “Belarus and the Ukraine Trap,” where he argued the United States should adopt a realistic diplomatic relationship with Belarus that takes into account its strategic partnership with Russia and learns from overpromises made to Ukraine.

Five years later, we asked Michael to revisit his arguments. Image: President of BelarusIn your 2021 article, you named Belarus as one of the most likely places for a war to break out between Russia and the West.

Belarus became a staging ground for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, yet a direct confrontation with NATO has not occurred.

What factors explain The post Jaw-Jaw With Belarus, Revisited Amid Ukraine War appeared first on War on the Rocks.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

65%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%