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Geopolitical··Severity 8

'We have to close defence gaps urgently': EU Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee chief McAllister

We sit down with David McAllister, the chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. He talks to us about the security threats facing Europe, and what defence gaps the EU urgently needs to close.

For McAllister, the EU is "not at war with the Russian Federation, but we are no longer at peace with Russia". "

He also believes that the EU is not, as yet, capable of making sovereign decisions in certain areas of defence "because we are too dependent on US capabilities.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

57%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%