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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Ethiopia and Eritrea sever diplomatic ties as northern fighting escalates

Ethiopia and Eritrea broke diplomatic ties on Thursday, accusing each other of stoking internal conflicts as fighting continued in northern Ethiopia.

Long-standing tensions between the two neighbours reached a crisis point after heavy fighting broke out last week between Ethiopian forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), raising fears of a return to the devastating 2020–2022 civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people.

Ethiopia accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF. Addis...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%