Geopolitical··Severity 8
Non-neutral Ukraine, in whatever form, poses threat Russia — expert
Alexander Irkhin added that Kiev must be not only neutral but also friendly toward Moscow
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%