Economic··Severity 7
Bets on US Federal Reserve rate hike in October fall as job market cools
Last month, the US economy added only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the economists’ forecast of 90,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a slight deterioration in the labor market.
Traders decreased expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year, with less than a 20% chance for October.
Despite a recent rate increase, inflationary pressures remain a concern for policymakers.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Economic Times
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%