'America is leaving Iraq, but Iran isn't: Withdrawal a massive strategic and tactical mistake'

Erin Ogunkeye is pleased to welcome Bamo Nouri, investigative journalist and also Honorary Research Fellow with the Department of International Politics at City Saint George's University of London.

He sees the end of the American military presence in Iraq as a profound shift in the balance of power inside the country.

For him, the central question is not whether Iraq has formally regained sovereignty, but whether it possesses the political cohesion, security capacity and economic independence necessary to exercise that sovereignty.

America is leaving Iraq, but Iran is not.

Tehran's influence is already embedded within Iraq's political parties, armed groups, economic networks and financial system, meaning that its power does not depend on a conventional military presence.

Removing the American counterweight now could give Iran-backed groups greater room to operate, while leaving Iraq's Kurdish region, which has relied heavily on American military, intelligence and air-defence support, facing its own strategic uncertainty.

Ultimately, the withdrawal will potentially intensify Iran's role in Iraq while making Iraq's attempts at political and economic reform considerably more difficult.