Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa
Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has been framed as giving it a launchpad to strike Yemen’s Houthis across the Red Sea, but Israel could also be on a collision course with an even more strategic foe and US ally in the Horn of Africa: Turkey.
Officials and analysts in Somaliland say their diplomatic normalisation with Israel in January 2026 -widely condemned by the wider Muslim and Arab world - was, in part, motivated by the need to check Turkey’s growing military footprint in Somalia.
Somaliland wants Israel to provide air defence systems to counter a build-up of Turkish drones and warplanes next door, officials in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland’s republic, which is recognised only by Israel, say.
“We need air defence systems,” Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign affairs advisor to Somaliland’s president, said in an interview. “Turkey has F-16s in Mogadishu, and it wants to build a drone base in Somalia.
” Read more: Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa Muslims pray along a market street before breaking their fast as they commemorate the holy month of Ramadan in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, on 19 February 2026 (Tony Karumba/AFP)
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Middle East Eye
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
