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Military··Severity 9

Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa

Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has been framed as giving it a launchpad to strike Yemen’s Houthis across the Red Sea, but Israel could also be on a collision course with an even more strategic foe and US ally in the Horn of Africa: Turkey.

Officials and analysts in Somaliland say their diplomatic normalisation with Israel in January 2026 -widely condemned by the wider Muslim and Arab world - was, in part, motivated by the need to check Turkey’s growing military footprint in Somalia.

Somaliland wants Israel to provide air defence systems to counter a build-up of Turkish drones and warplanes next door, officials in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland’s republic, which is recognised only by Israel, say.

“We need air defence systems,” Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign affairs advisor to Somaliland’s president, said in an interview. “Turkey has F-16s in Mogadishu, and it wants to build a drone base in Somalia.

” Read more: Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa Muslims pray along a market street before breaking their fast as they commemorate the holy month of Ramadan in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, on 19 February 2026 (Tony Karumba/AFP)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%