Geopolitical··Severity 8
Medvedev spells conditions for Ukraine peace, comments on impact from attack on Iran
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stressed that Ukraine will need to embrace a neutral, non-nuclear status, reject its nationalist policy course and recognize the four new Russian regions to achieve a long-lasting political settlement
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
63%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%