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Economic··Severity 7

China has dominated tungsten for decades. Can US cash in Central Asia loosen its grip?

The race to loosen China’s grip on tungsten is moving to Kazakhstan, where United States-backed mining projects are attempting to compete in an industry where Chinese investment already has an operating foothold.

Global tungsten prices have surged more than 200 per cent since May 2025, according to commodity and energy information provider Argus Media, adding urgency to efforts to develop alternative supplies.

The soaring costs followed Beijing’s export controls on selected tungsten products...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

41%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%