Geopolitical··Severity 8
German Chancellor in Kyiv: "Ukraine will need our support"
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Ukraine on Sunday to show solidarity after Russian attacks on Kyiv infrastructure, including three bridges.
Last month, Germany’s foreign minister called for de-escalation during talks with his Russian counterpart at the UN, drawing criticism from Sergei Lavrov, who urged Berlin to stop arming Ukraine.
On Saturday, Moscow called on foreign nationals and diplomats to leave Ukraine. Shirli Sitbon reports.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
57%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%