Geopolitical··Severity 8
Germany’s Merz arrives in Kyiv to show support for Ukraine
Trip comes as Russia expands its air war against Ukraine ahead of winter and escalates ‘hybrid’ attacks on Europe
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
71%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%