Geopolitical··Severity 8
War on Iran: Is escalation more likely than a deal?
Former Iranian and US diplomats agree that the war on Iran is likely to get worse in the coming weeks.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
56%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%