Economic··Severity 7
Germany and France agree on last-resort tool against trade threats
Berlin on board with ‘second-strike weapon’ to deter threats over key supplies such as exports of Chinese rare earths and magnets
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
45%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%