Geopolitical··Severity 8
Europe Today: Russia hits Kyiv as Merz visits; Bolsonaro wins Brazil's first round election
German Chancellor Friedriz Merz's visit to Ukraine was met with Russian missiles as he pledged €1.3 billion to Kyiv.
In Iran, the country's deputy foreign minister says Washington is reviewing Tehran’s proposal to end the war. And in Brazil, Bolsonaro wins Brazil's first round election.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
68%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%