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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Quebec votes as separatist surge poses test for Canada PM

Quebec separatists eyed a return to power in Canada's majority French-speaking province Monday in an election that could test Prime Minister Mark Carney's message of national unity to confront the United States.

Carney is popular in Quebec, and the possible success of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is not seen as a repudiation of his stance toward President Donald Trump, whose trade war and annexation threats have infuriated Canadians.

FRANCE 24's Christopher Guly reports from Ottawa.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

60%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%