Geopolitical··Severity 9
Ukraine says Russian drone attack sinks ship in Romanian waters
The latest suspected incursion on NATO's eastern flank increases fears that the war in Ukraine threatens to spill over.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
79%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%