Geopolitical··Severity 8
Trump says US pulled bombers from UK after ‘threats’
Washington and London have both suggested Iran was involved in the incident near RAF Fairford base
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%