Brazil presidential election: 'Bolsonaro being ahead is a surprise,' researcher says
Far-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has pulled off a surprise win in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election.
He defied most polls to win with 47 percent, compared to 45 percent for leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva.
We spoke to Thomas Zicman de Barros, a research fellow at CEVIPOF, the political research centre at Sciences Po University, and columnist for our sister radio station RFI.
He told us that never before in Brazilian history has a candidate who was behind in the first round then succeeded in the second.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%