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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Quebec votes in provincial election as separatist surge poses test for Canada’s PM Carney

Quebec separatists eyed a return to power in Canada’s majority French-speaking province on Monday in an election that could test Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity to confront the United States.

Carney is popular in Quebec and the possible success of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is not seen as a repudiation of his stance towards US President Donald Trump, whose trade war and annexation threats have infuriated Canadians.

Instead, the PQ’s rise after 12 years in...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

60%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%