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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Indian sailor killed in attack on vessel in Hormuz, India and Oman authorities say

An attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday killed an Indian sailor, Omani and Indian authorities said, with the latter condemning the ongoing attacks in the vital shipping lane.

Since the start of the Middle East war, Iran has sought to impose its control over the maritime conduit for Gulf oil and gas, occasionally striking ships accused of failing to coordinate with its authorities or deviating from its preferred route.

In retaliation, the US has been enforcing a...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

73%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%