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Military··Severity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are the latest developments: South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that he would not deploy any military assets to the Middle East that could potentially draw Seoul into conflict amid the war on Iran.

However, Lee indicated that the government is considering whether to expand its role safeguarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, as global energy supplies face severe disruption.

Yemen's army said that 30 Houthi fighters were killed and over 60 others were wounded within 24 hours in the Al-Waziyah district west of Taiz.

Yemeni warplanes also reportedly struck Houthi vehicles and gathering points in the area, a military source was cited as saying by the Armed Forces Media Center.

Al Jazeera reported that Israeli artillery shelling targeting the town of Haddatha in the Bint Jbeil district in southern Lebanon resulted in a fire breaking out.

Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon have continued despite a ceasefire in place.

The US State Department has notified Congress that it plans to sell Saudi Arabia up to 48 F-35 warplanes, in a move that has been widely opposed by Israel.

The historic sale could total $24.3bn and would mark the first time an Arab state gains access to the US’s fifth-generation jet fighter.

The Israeli army warned Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that security lines on three fronts cannot be maintained without "without billions of shekels added to the budget", the Israeli Army Radio reported.

The three fronts were identified as the Gaza Strip, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%