Military··Severity 8
China Is Moving Toward a New Form of Coercion at Sea
China is pushing patrols into new waters near Taiwan, regularizing its presence, and deploying research vessels that can conduct military reconnaissance.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
71%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: The Diplomat
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%