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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Risk of unrest in Asia as Iran war, El Nino threaten food supplies

Severe weather disruptions will amplify food security risks in Asia, potentially triggering civil unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, according to consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

The warning comes as the war in Iran has already disrupted fuel and fertiliser supplies, both of which are key agricultural inputs.

Now, weather extremes linked to a powerful El Nino are further threatening crops across the region. Indonesia, the world’s...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

63%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%