Military··Severity 8
Lebanon: Macron, Aoun and King Abdullah II hold security talks in Paris
Emmanuel Macron is hosting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Jordan's King Abdullah II in Paris for talks on Lebanon's security and international support for the Lebanese army.
The meeting comes as concerns grow over Israel's continued strikes in southern Lebanon and the possible end of the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission, with France seeking a "clear, credible and realistic" plan to back Lebanon through funding, equipment and military training.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
67%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%