Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation leads to aggressive rate hikes in quick succession, exceeding market expectations. This triggers a sell-off in riskier assets globally as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown. * Confirmation indicators: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 0.5% interest rate hike at the June meeting, followed by another 0.25% increase in July. Inflation data remains stubbornly high. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Federal Reserve pauses its aggressive rate hikes after a series of smaller increases, opting for a measured approach to control inflation. This leads to market stabilization and continued growth in certain sectors, though overall economic activity remains sluggish. * Confirm (46% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation leads to aggressive rate hikes in quick succession, exceeding market expectations. This triggers a sell-off in riskier assets globally as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown. * Confirmation indicators: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 0.5% interest rate hike at the June meeting, followed by another 0.25% increase in July. Inflation data remains stubbornly high. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Federal Reserve pauses its aggressive rate hikes after a series of smaller increases, opting for a measured approach to control inflation. This leads to market stabilization and continued growth in certain sectors, though overall economic activity remains sluggish. * Confirm (39% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation leads to aggressive rate hikes in quick succession, exceeding market expectations. This triggers a sell-off in riskier assets globally as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown. * Confirmation indicators: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 0.5% interest rate hike at the June meeting, followed by another 0.25% increase in July. Inflation data remains stubbornly high. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Federal Reserve pauses its aggressive rate hikes after a series of smaller increases, opting for a measured approach to control inflation. This leads to market stabilization and continued growth in certain sectors, though overall economic activity remains sluggish. * Confirm (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

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