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Ukraine loses 9,500 troops, mercenaries in special military op zone in past week — expert

According to Andrey Marochko, the upward casualty trend in the Ukrainian army has persisted for the fifth consecutive week

Source: TASS EnglishOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

Russia escalates its offensive in Ukraine, targeting key infrastructure and supply lines. Increased military pressure leads to Ukrainian casualties exceeding 10,000 within a week. This triggers NATO member states to provide more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, potentially including long-range missiles. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., power plants, fuel depots) and a

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

Russia escalates its offensive in Ukraine, targeting key infrastructure and supply lines. Increased military pressure leads to Ukrainian casualties exceeding 10,000 within a week. This triggers NATO member states to provide more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, potentially including long-range missiles. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., power plants, fuel depots) and a

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

Russia escalates its offensive in Ukraine, targeting key infrastructure and supply lines. Increased military pressure leads to Ukrainian casualties exceeding 10,000 within a week. This triggers NATO member states to provide more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, potentially including long-range missiles. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., power plants, fuel depots) and a

Horizon: 7–30 days

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