Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's fuel shortage concerns escalate into a public dispute with global oil markets. Russia announces further export cuts, potentially targeting key refineries in OPEC+ nations, leading to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. This triggers heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: * A significant increase in geopolitical risk assessments by major rating agencies. * The Russian government publicly expresses a willingness to reduce oil exports further. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Russia prioritizes domestic fuel needs, increasing refinery output and easing fuel shortages within its borders. This leads to increased domestic demand for Russian fuel products, potentially impacting global trade dynamic (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's fuel shortage concerns escalate into a public dispute with global oil markets. Russia announces further export cuts, potentially targeting key refineries in OPEC+ nations, leading to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. This triggers heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: * A significant increase in geopolitical risk assessments by major rating agencies. * The Russian government publicly expresses a willingness to reduce oil exports further. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Russia prioritizes domestic fuel needs, increasing refinery output and easing fuel shortages within its borders. This leads to increased domestic demand for Russian fuel products, potentially impacting global trade dynamic (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's fuel shortage concerns escalate into a public dispute with global oil markets. Russia announces further export cuts, potentially targeting key refineries in OPEC+ nations, leading to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. This triggers heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: * A significant increase in geopolitical risk assessments by major rating agencies. * The Russian government publicly expresses a willingness to reduce oil exports further. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Russia prioritizes domestic fuel needs, increasing refinery output and easing fuel shortages within its borders. This leads to increased domestic demand for Russian fuel products, potentially impacting global trade dynamic (13% model probability, not a guarantee)