Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Musk's public statements regarding Trump's tariffs lead to increased political tensions and market uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responds with a statement emphasizing the US commitment to free trade, but her words are seen as weak by some investors. This leads to a decline in global investor confidence and an increase in volatility across financial markets. 1. A significant surge in short selling activity on major stock indices within 24-72 hours after Musk's statement. 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average drops by more than 5% within a week following the Yellen statement. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The US economy continues to face challenges in the second half of 2025, including inflation and high interest rates. Trump's tariff policies r (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Musk's public statements regarding Trump's tariffs lead to increased political tensions and market uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responds with a statement emphasizing the US commitment to free trade, but her words are seen as weak by some investors. This leads to a decline in global investor confidence and an increase in volatility across financial markets. 1. A significant surge in short selling activity on major stock indices within 24-72 hours after Musk's statement. 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average drops by more than 5% within a week following the Yellen statement. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The US economy continues to face challenges in the second half of 2025, including inflation and high interest rates. Trump's tariff policies r (35% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Musk's public statements regarding Trump's tariffs lead to increased political tensions and market uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen responds with a statement emphasizing the US commitment to free trade, but her words are seen as weak by some investors. This leads to a decline in global investor confidence and an increase in volatility across financial markets. 1. A significant surge in short selling activity on major stock indices within 24-72 hours after Musk's statement. 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average drops by more than 5% within a week following the Yellen statement. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The US economy continues to face challenges in the second half of 2025, including inflation and high interest rates. Trump's tariff policies r (13% model probability, not a guarantee)