Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU member states experience increased political tensions due to differing economic policies and trade disputes. This leads to a breakdown in negotiations on key issues like energy cooperation and customs regulations, potentially triggering retaliatory measures like tariffs or sanctions. * Confirmation Indicators: A public statement from the EAEU expressing dissatisfaction with current trade practices between member states within 30 days. A significant increase in diplomatic tensions between Russia and a major EU member state within 60 days. * Time Horizon: 120-180 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The EAEU continues to project moderate economic growth, driven by increased trade activity and investment in infrastructure projects within member states. However, global market volatility and (49% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU member states experience increased political tensions due to differing economic policies and trade disputes. This leads to a breakdown in negotiations on key issues like energy cooperation and customs regulations, potentially triggering retaliatory measures like tariffs or sanctions. * Confirmation Indicators: A public statement from the EAEU expressing dissatisfaction with current trade practices between member states within 30 days. A significant increase in diplomatic tensions between Russia and a major EU member state within 60 days. * Time Horizon: 120-180 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The EAEU continues to project moderate economic growth, driven by increased trade activity and investment in infrastructure projects within member states. However, global market volatility and (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: EAEU member states experience increased political tensions due to differing economic policies and trade disputes. This leads to a breakdown in negotiations on key issues like energy cooperation and customs regulations, potentially triggering retaliatory measures like tariffs or sanctions. * Confirmation Indicators: A public statement from the EAEU expressing dissatisfaction with current trade practices between member states within 30 days. A significant increase in diplomatic tensions between Russia and a major EU member state within 60 days. * Time Horizon: 120-180 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The EAEU continues to project moderate economic growth, driven by increased trade activity and investment in infrastructure projects within member states. However, global market volatility and (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

ЕАЭС прогнозирует совокупный рост ВВП на уровне около 2,5% в 2026-2027 годах — Токаев

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