Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Schmid's comments signal increased hawkishness from the Fed, leading to a rapid increase in market-based inflation expectations. This drives up long-term interest rates and strengthens the USD, impacting global markets negatively. * Confirmation indicators: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a significant rate hike exceeding market predictions. A surge in bond yields occurs within 5 business days. * Time horizon: 10-20 business days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Schmid's comments are met with cautious optimism, leading to a measured increase in interest rates and a gradual adjustment of market expectations. The Fed maintains a balanced approach, focusing on data-driven decisions rather than preemptive action. * Confirmation indicators: The FOMC announces a moderate rat (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Schmid's comments signal increased hawkishness from the Fed, leading to a rapid increase in market-based inflation expectations. This drives up long-term interest rates and strengthens the USD, impacting global markets negatively. * Confirmation indicators: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a significant rate hike exceeding market predictions. A surge in bond yields occurs within 5 business days. * Time horizon: 10-20 business days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Schmid's comments are met with cautious optimism, leading to a measured increase in interest rates and a gradual adjustment of market expectations. The Fed maintains a balanced approach, focusing on data-driven decisions rather than preemptive action. * Confirmation indicators: The FOMC announces a moderate rat (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Schmid's comments signal increased hawkishness from the Fed, leading to a rapid increase in market-based inflation expectations. This drives up long-term interest rates and strengthens the USD, impacting global markets negatively. * Confirmation indicators: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a significant rate hike exceeding market predictions. A surge in bond yields occurs within 5 business days. * Time horizon: 10-20 business days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Schmid's comments are met with cautious optimism, leading to a measured increase in interest rates and a gradual adjustment of market expectations. The Fed maintains a balanced approach, focusing on data-driven decisions rather than preemptive action. * Confirmation indicators: The FOMC announces a moderate rat (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Шмид из ФРС говорит, что чиновники должны сигнализировать о приверженности инфляции

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