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S8/10Military

Did Myanmar-China talks spawn a more emboldened junta?

A recent meeting between the leaders of Myanmar and China has given the military junta an opening to persuade Asean to allow it to return to the bloc’s summits.

Analysts also say, however, that Myanmar’s regime could feel emboldened to escalate action against resistance forces, revving up its “military approach” to deal with the country’s civil war.

Last Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Myanmar counterpart Min Aung Hlaing in Beijing, providing vital political endorsement to the...

Source: South China Morning PostOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

Myanmar junta leverages Chinese endorsement to pressure ASEAN for reinstatement into summits. Increased military action against resistance groups intensifies, with increased border skirmishes and targeted attacks in urban centers. The regime seeks to regain control over key strategic locations like Kachin State and Shan State. This escalation could lead to a renewed cycle of violence and instability. Confirmation indicators: Within 1 week:

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

Myanmar junta leverages Chinese endorsement to pressure ASEAN for reinstatement into summits. Increased military action against resistance groups intensifies, with increased border skirmishes and targeted attacks in urban centers. The regime seeks to regain control over key strategic locations like Kachin State and Shan State. This escalation could lead to a renewed cycle of violence and instability. Confirmation indicators: Within 1 week:

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

Myanmar junta leverages Chinese endorsement to pressure ASEAN for reinstatement into summits. Increased military action against resistance groups intensifies, with increased border skirmishes and targeted attacks in urban centers. The regime seeks to regain control over key strategic locations like Kachin State and Shan State. This escalation could lead to a renewed cycle of violence and instability. Confirmation indicators: Within 1 week:

Horizon: 7–30 days

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