Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The Indonesian President's announcement triggers a diplomatic backlash from key trading partners concerned about potential trade barriers and decreased transparency in export procedures. This leads to increased scrutiny of Indonesian investments by international institutions, potentially triggering sanctions or divestment. The rupiah weakens against major currencies, impacting global investment flows. * Indonesia's government announces retaliatory measures against specific exporting countries. * International organizations (e.g., WTO) raise concerns about Indonesia's export policies. * Global financial markets experience volatility and a decline in investor confidence. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Indonesian government maintains its position, focusing on int (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The Indonesian President's announcement triggers a diplomatic backlash from key trading partners concerned about potential trade barriers and decreased transparency in export procedures. This leads to increased scrutiny of Indonesian investments by international institutions, potentially triggering sanctions or divestment. The rupiah weakens against major currencies, impacting global investment flows. * Indonesia's government announces retaliatory measures against specific exporting countries. * International organizations (e.g., WTO) raise concerns about Indonesia's export policies. * Global financial markets experience volatility and a decline in investor confidence. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Indonesian government maintains its position, focusing on int (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The Indonesian President's announcement triggers a diplomatic backlash from key trading partners concerned about potential trade barriers and decreased transparency in export procedures. This leads to increased scrutiny of Indonesian investments by international institutions, potentially triggering sanctions or divestment. The rupiah weakens against major currencies, impacting global investment flows. * Indonesia's government announces retaliatory measures against specific exporting countries. * International organizations (e.g., WTO) raise concerns about Indonesia's export policies. * Global financial markets experience volatility and a decline in investor confidence. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Indonesian government maintains its position, focusing on int (14% model probability, not a guarantee)