Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Armenia's agricultural exports face increased scrutiny and potential rejection due to stricter EAEU phytosanitary standards compared to EU regulations. Russia, Armenia’s key trade partner, may further restrict imports of Armenian products, leading to a decline in export volume and revenue for Armenia. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased public statements from Russian officials expressing concern about the quality of Armenian agricultural products. * Reports of Armenian agricultural exports being rejected at Russian border checkpoints. * Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Armenia and EU member states continue to negotiate trade agreements and address phytosanitary standards concerns. The existing trade relationship between Armenia and Russia remains largely unaf (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Armenia's agricultural exports face increased scrutiny and potential rejection due to stricter EAEU phytosanitary standards compared to EU regulations. Russia, Armenia’s key trade partner, may further restrict imports of Armenian products, leading to a decline in export volume and revenue for Armenia. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased public statements from Russian officials expressing concern about the quality of Armenian agricultural products. * Reports of Armenian agricultural exports being rejected at Russian border checkpoints. * Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Armenia and EU member states continue to negotiate trade agreements and address phytosanitary standards concerns. The existing trade relationship between Armenia and Russia remains largely unaf (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Armenia's agricultural exports face increased scrutiny and potential rejection due to stricter EAEU phytosanitary standards compared to EU regulations. Russia, Armenia’s key trade partner, may further restrict imports of Armenian products, leading to a decline in export volume and revenue for Armenia. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased public statements from Russian officials expressing concern about the quality of Armenian agricultural products. * Reports of Armenian agricultural exports being rejected at Russian border checkpoints. * Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Armenia and EU member states continue to negotiate trade agreements and address phytosanitary standards concerns. The existing trade relationship between Armenia and Russia remains largely unaf (13% model probability, not a guarantee)

Putin wonders who in EU will buy Armenia's agro-exports if Russia stops imports

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators