Geopolitical··Severity 8
NATO jet shoots down suspected Russian drone over Lithuania
EU chief warns of wider conflict as border incursions stoke fears that Ukraine war is spilling into neighbouring states.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
71%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%