Geopolitical··Severity 8
A war-fatigued and anxious Russia picks a new parliament
Fuel shortages, drone strikes and mobilization rumors are fueling anxiety and war fatigue in Russia. As support for peace talks grows among Russians, the Kremlin is watching closely ahead of parliamentary elections.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
61%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: DW World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%